Mortgage rates today, September 10 and rate predictions for next week
Today’s Mortgage and Refinance Rates
Average mortgage rates fell slightly yesterday. Indeed, they have fallen over the whole of this week, albeit noticeably rather than modestly. They are therefore in fairly good shape compared to the severity of their condition.
I still don’t have a forecast for next week, I’m afraid. But we should know much more next Tuesday when the consumer price index is published. This will likely largely determine the extent of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 21st. This could therefore be a tipping point for mortgage rates.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||APR*||To change|
|30-year fixed conventional||6.222%||6.255%||+0.05%|
|15-year fixed conventional||5.301%||5.332%||+0.03%|
|20-year fixed conventional||6.161%||6.221%||-0.04%|
|10-year fixed conventional||5.727%||5.844%||+0.05%|
|30-year fixed FHA||6.086%||7.003%||+0.11%|
|15-year fixed FHA||5.716%||6.323%||+0.15%|
|30-year fixed PV||6.017%||6.255%||+0.25%|
|15-year fixed VA||5.75%||6.104%||+0.05%|
|Pricing is provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rate may be different. Click here for a personalized quote. See our rate assumptions here.|
Should you lock in a mortgage rate today?
Don’t lock in on a day when mortgage rates look set to drop. My recommendations (below) are intended to provide longer-term suggestions on the general direction of these rates. Thus, they do not change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.
Even if September turns out to be a good month for mortgage rates – and that’s far from certain – I would be surprised if we were to see significant and sustained declines. After that, everyone can guess. But I suspect that mild increases are more likely than overall declines by the end of the year.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
- TO BLOCK if closing seven days
- TO BLOCK if closing 15 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 30 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 45 days
- TO BLOCK if closing 60 days
However, with so much uncertainty right now, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine, or even better. So let your instincts and your own risk tolerance guide you.
What’s Moving Current Mortgage Rates
Next Tuesday could be a pivotal day for mortgage rates. This is when the latest inflation figures are released in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Mortgage rates have risen sharply this year for two main reasons. First, inflation itself tends to push them higher. And, second, the Federal Reserve is trying to bring inflation down by raising general interest rates.
Tuesday’s CPI will influence both. If inflation shows early signs of slowing down, the Fed could decide on a 50 basis point (0.5%) hike on September 21st. But if still hot, that rise is more likely to be 75 basis points (0.75%).
Of course, if the CPI numbers turn out as expected, markets and mortgage rates might barely react. To be clear, these rates are likely to rise if inflation continues to rise and fall if it falls.
The rest of 2022
I used to talk often about an epic struggle in the minds of investors between fear of inflation and fear of recession. And it still continues.
When investors are concerned about inflation, mortgage rates tend to rise. But when obsessed with a future recession, those rates tend to drop.
The fight between the two will likely continue until prices stabilize and an economic downturn either happens or clearly doesn’t happen.
So far, signs of an impending recession in the US are limited. Employment figures, purchasing managers’ indices and other economic indicators are too strong for a slowdown to occur soon.
But that could change quickly. A recession in Europe seems almost inevitable. And that’s a risk in other major economies, even in China. In today’s globalized world, such misfortunes could easily infect the American economy.
Meanwhile, inflation continues in many commodities, although energy prices have stabilized, particularly in America. And rising food prices are a problem virtually everywhere. We are still far from an infernal spiral where wages drive out prices and prices drive out wages. But that’s always another risk.
So what does all of this mean for mortgage rates over the next few months? Well, anything can happen. But I think they are more likely to go up gently than down. Even if inflation suddenly slows, the Fed has said it will want to see “several months” of evidence before easing its interest rate hikes.
But it is a balance of probabilities judgment. Nobody knows for sure.
Economic reports next week
The next week is almost entirely devoted to inflation. Tuesday’s CPI (see above) will tell us about consumer prices in August. And Wednesday’s Producer Price Index and Thursday’s Import Price Index measure future prices ahead.
The week can be inflation-heavy, but there are a few other types of reports as well. Thursday’s retail sales for the month of August will provide some indication of how the economy is doing. And Friday’s Consumer Sentiment Index and 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations reports will give very important insights into Americans’ hopes and fears for the economy.
In the following list, the main reports are in bold. Others are unlikely to move markets or mortgage rates much next week unless they contain surprisingly good or bad data.
- Monday — New York Fed 3-Year Inflation Expectations
- tuesday — august consumer price index. Plus National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Index
- Wednesday — August producer price index
- Thursday — August retail sales. More August import price index, and index of industrial production. New unemployment insurance claims weekly until September 10.
- Friday – Consumer Confidence Index and 5-year consumer inflation expectations from the University of Michigan
It’s a big week for economic data.
Mortgage interest rate forecast for next week
I have no idea what will happen to mortgage rates next week. A mountain of economic data could push them either way. See above for my longer term forecast.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates are typically determined by prices in a secondary market (similar to stock or bond markets) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.
And it depends heavily on the economy. Thus, mortgage rates tend to be high when things are going well and low when the economy is struggling. But inflation rates can undermine these trends.
But you play an important role in determining your own mortgage rate in five ways. And you can affect it significantly by:
- Shop around for your best mortgage rate – They vary widely from lender to lender
- Boost your credit score – Even a small bump can make a big difference to your rate and payments
- Save the biggest down payment possible – Lenders like you to have real skin in this game
- Keep your other borrowings small — The lower your other monthly commitments, the higher the mortgage you can afford
- Choose your mortgage carefully – Are you better off with a conventional, conforming, FHA, VA, USDA, jumbo or other loan?
Time spent getting these ducks in a row can earn you lower rates.
Remember it’s not just a mortgage rate
Be sure to factor in all of your homeownership costs when calculating how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your “PITI”. It’s your Pprincipal (repays the amount you borrowed), IInterest (the price of the loan), (the property) Jaxes, and (owners) Iinsurance. Our mortgage loan calculator can help you.
Depending on your type of mortgage and the amount of your down payment, you may also need to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily hit three figures every month.
But there are other potential costs. So you will have to pay homeowners association dues if you choose to live somewhere with an HOA. And, wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. There is no owner to call when things go wrong!
Finally, you will have a hard time forgetting closing costs. You can see those reflected in the annual percentage rate (APR) that lenders will quote you. Because it spreads them effectively over the term of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.
But you may be able to get help with those closing costs. and your down payment, especially if you are a first-time buyer. Lily:
Down payment assistance programs in every state for 2021
Mortgage Rate Methodology
Mortgage reports receive daily rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average a range of prices, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the market. In addition, we average the rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA with fixed FHA. The result is a good overview of the daily rates and their development over time.
The information contained on The Mortgage Reports website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute advertising for products offered by Full Beaker. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of Full Beaker, its officers, parent company or affiliates.